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20131028
20131105
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difficult for the market. so i think we have to be careful in here. the economy is moving along, but it's kind of like a jalopy. swerving all over the road. moving slowly, still moving forward. >> one of the big stories of the day, rick santelli, was the backup in yield. tell us what happened in the market today. >> it really was more yesterday than today. even though we've held it. if you look at a two day chart it really says it all. yesterday after the statement, we dropped down to a 247 yield. a very significant technical level. 38% retracement of the move in rates which monitored 136 basis points from may to september. having that hold and basically settling up at 2.55, i think is significant. if you look at the month of october from the vantage point of treasuries, 10-year note yields the last day in september were 2.61. we've only shaved off basically a handful of basis points. the big story is, you need to factor this in, is that europe went from the disaster to stabilization. but do we get overly optimistic? 12.2 unemployment in the ing aggregate eurozone. maybe a week from tod
. if the economy can get along, you can add 2.6 and get a home mortgage at 4.6 they're not about to give away anything on the bond market. i think that's why rates have stayed, other than when politicians messed things around in the middle of october, we're sitting at 2.6 and i think so the bond market says, we're not going any lower than this. >> we saw a pretty good spike last week. people were worried last week but there's always a cap. >> i think the cap is if this economy can adjust and move homes, which we're not forming households we're off about 300,000 in terms of hos hold formation. if we can get household formation back, we'll see progress. i think rates -- the bond market is saying we're not going anywhere. you can't talk us down any more fed chair. we see the rates coming. we know they're rising. >> what do you think? >> just given where how much rates rose on the threat of taper, that i don't think janet yellen, if she is, in fact elected as fed chair, is going to go anywhere close to pulling back too quickly. she's going to error on the side of being sl
their pedal on the metal. they're not going to stop until they feel the economy can stand on its own two feet. >> michael jones -- >> they're not going to taper. >> right. michael jones, weigh in here. how are you allocating? you agree, you want to buy stocks here? >> we believe you get the best example of how powerful the qe in terms of significant pullbacks by contrasting the last budget fiasco in 2011 with this one. we had almost a 20% plunge in the market in 2011. we had a 3%, 4% pull back this time. i think it does give you a sense as to when they're pushing the qe, it's hard to get a sustained pullback and it's perilous to fight the fed. but the market has turned from being overly concerned, this summer everyone said september, and now everyone is pushing tapering out to march, even april. i think there's a real possibility the economy sloweded because of government shutdown and rates. if we reaccelerate, tapering comes back on the table and a lot of sectors are not priced for that. >> so, you -- are you saying you want to raise cash here or short or what? >> i think the overall market,
. >> it's doing well. >> low, slow growth economy. we get gdp numbers next week. job numbers for friday. you may see a hiccup in the unemployment rate because of the government shutdown whereby tapering pushed that back to 2014. >> we have a lot of bulls here today. anything you see in the market that is a little troubling or that you take as a sign you either need to sit back or do something else with your money right now? >> that's a great point. you're looking at sentiment polls. the put/call ratios are showing levels we saw previous peaks this year. again, we've had this great run. i was on three weeks ago with bill and said, buy now because everyone hates the market. we had that 7% rally in 15 days. now we're getting a little excited. nothing wrong with that 37 but we continue to say buy the dip. we'll have a pullback eventually. we all know september, october are usually bearish. when they're each up over 2%, only happened 13 times over the last 100 years, november and december are usually bullish months. up 4% on average. 13 times up 12 of those times. very good rally. we would c
Search Results 0 to 4 of about 5